Here's the Oil & Gas Industry's Plan for Trump 2.0

Internal documents obtained by Fieldnotes reveal how some of the largest oil & gas companies in the United States will try to roll back regulation of their industry once Republicans take control of the presidency and both houses of Congress in January 2025. (The documents were first reported on by the Washington Post last month, back when total GOP control of the federal government was seen as possible—but far from assured.)

A 176-page packet compiled for the American Exploration & Production Council’s (AXPC) board of directors before an August 9th meeting details the groundwork the trade association has laid as well as its plans for the future—namely, killing the methane fee, weakening emissions regulations, cutting taxes for the oil & gas industry, and reforming permitting rules to make it harder to block projects through litigation.

How exactly will industry accomplish this? It’s all laid out in AXPC’s 2025 Policy Roadmap—the organization’s guide for campaigns and transition teams. A table of contents includes lists of existing executive orders to modify or revoke, new executive orders to enact, rulemakings to scrap or initiate, and scientific studies that would bolster AXPC’s positions.

AXPC counts among its members some of the largest oil & gas companies in the United States, including ExxonMobil subsidiary XTO Energy, ConocoPhillips, and EQT Corporation, a major gas producer.

The internal documents shed new light on what the industry expects to get in return for supporting Trump, who earlier this year offered a “deal” to oil & gas executives: $1 billion in campaign donations in exchange for their preferred policy outcomes. Two executives of AXPC member companies—Nick Dell’Osso of Expand Energy and Toby Rice of EQT Corporation—were in the room when Trump made that pitch. Other executives, along with AXPC CEO Anne Bradbury, met with JD Vance in mid-June.

The documents also contain details on AXPC’s political expenditures, revealing that AXPC worked to ensure Trump will have a friendly majority in Congress by spending over $1.3 million on the most recent election with a focus on Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania.

AXPC says that the oil & gas companies it represents are “committed” to reducing their emissions and support “effective and reasonable” methane regulations. To the public, lawmakers, and regulators, they portray themselves as responsible operators making a good faith effort to reduce emissions.

Internal documents paint a different picture.

Slides marked “Confidential” show that the volume of gas flared by AXPC member companies rose 21 percent from 2022 to 2023, and one company increased its flaring intensity 134 percent in recent years.

AXPC knew that many of the oil & gas companies it represents weren’t voluntarily reducing flaring, but still fought regulation. In fact, undermining EPA’s methane rules remains AXPC’s top priority.

During the rulemaking process, AXPC met with EPA on at least seven occasions, holding in-person meetings with rule-writing staff and political appointees, including Joe Goffman, the head of EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation. Once EPA finalized its first rule, AXPC joined a coalition of trade associations and Republican-led states in suing the agency.

In 2025, the oil & gas industry plans to kill the methane fee with help from GOP allies. In the documents, AXPC claims credit for securing a key policy rider on a House appropriations bill passed in July 2024 that would block implementation of the methane fee. AXPC’s wishlist for the incoming Trump administration includes a recommendation to scrap the fee, and the group is currently pressing Republicans to repeal it through reconciliation if they control Congress next year.

AXPC’s other priorities include cutting taxes for the oil & gas industry and rewriting permitting rules.

At the end of 2025, parts of Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will expire, teeing up what Axios has called a “battle royale over tax policy.” AXPC sees this as an opportunity to push the industry’s agenda on intangible drilling costs (IDCs). The group wants Congress to “fix” the tax code so oil & gas companies can immediately deduct IDCs from their income under the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax. AXPC is already lobbying Republicans to get this done next year.

On permitting reform, the group’s key priority is creating a standard of judicial review for claims brought under NEPA, which would make it harder for environmental groups and property owners to ensure oil & gas projects follow environmental and historic preservation laws. AXPC supports Manchin and Barrasso’s recently-introduced energy permitting reform legislation, but notes that it doesn’t tackle the judicial review issue.

AXPC also plans to gut Biden-era NEPA rules that direct agencies to consider climate change and environmental justice in permitting decisions.